{"id":1122,"date":"2013-06-02T23:33:04","date_gmt":"2013-06-03T03:33:04","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blog.richardhornsby.com\/?p=1122"},"modified":"2013-06-02T23:33:04","modified_gmt":"2013-06-03T03:33:04","slug":"what-will-george-zimmermans-jury-look-like","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.hornsby.com\/blog\/what-will-george-zimmermans-jury-look-like\/","title":{"rendered":"What Will George Zimmerman&#8217;s Jury Look Like?"},"content":{"rendered":"<blockquote><p>In all criminal prosecutions the accused shall have a speedy and public trial by impartial jury in the county where the crime was committed.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.flsenate.gov\/Laws\/Constitution#A1S16\">Article 1, Section 16, Florida Constitution<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>For over a year, the issue of race has hung over the George Zimmerman case like a persistent thunderstorm.<\/p>\n<p>And while much has been said about the implications of the verdict on race relations, the elephant in the room has always been about the racial makeup of the jury.<\/p>\n<p>Because as we learned in the Rodney King trial,\u00a0the race of the jury\u00a0is ultimately the most important racial issue in a case that is really about race.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 24px;\">Seminole County Demographics<\/span><\/p>\n<p>And while we do not know who will be make up the six person jury (and four alternates), we do know that it will be selected from a venire (jury pool) of 500 Seminole County residents.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>If I am George Zimmerman, I want a jury composed of as many older, conservative, white or Hispanic, affluent, male, homeowners as possible.<\/li>\n<li>If I am the prosecution, I want a jury composed of as many young, liberal, black, middle class, female renters (preferably mothers)\u00a0as possible.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>So what might that venire look like:<\/p>\n<h3>Age Distribution<\/h3>\n<p>According to\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/factfinder.census.gov\/faces\/tableservices\/jsf\/pages\/productview.xhtml?src=bkmk\">United States Census Statistics<\/a>, the age distribution of the Seminole County venire is likely to lean towards the George Zimmerman defense team:<\/p>\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<th align=\"left\" valign=\"bottom\">Census Statistics<\/th>\n<th align=\"right\" valign=\"bottom\">Seminole<\/th>\n<th align=\"right\" valign=\"bottom\">Florida<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr valign=\"top\">\n<td valign=\"top\">20 to 24 years<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\" valign=\"bottom\">7.3%<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\" valign=\"bottom\">6.6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr valign=\"top\">\n<td valign=\"top\">25 to 34 years<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\" valign=\"bottom\">13.1%<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\" valign=\"bottom\">12.2%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr valign=\"top\">\n<td valign=\"top\">35 to 44 years<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\" valign=\"bottom\">14.3%<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\" valign=\"bottom\">13.2%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr valign=\"top\">\n<td valign=\"top\">45 to 54 years<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\" valign=\"bottom\">15.9%<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\" valign=\"bottom\">14.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr valign=\"top\">\n<td valign=\"top\">55 to 59 years<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\" valign=\"bottom\">6.5%<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\" valign=\"bottom\">6.3%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr valign=\"top\">\n<td valign=\"top\">60 to 64 years<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\" valign=\"bottom\">5.4%<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\" valign=\"bottom\">5.9%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr valign=\"top\">\n<td valign=\"top\">65 to 74 years<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\" valign=\"bottom\">6.3%<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\" valign=\"bottom\">9.0%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr valign=\"top\">\n<td valign=\"top\">75 to 84 years<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\" valign=\"bottom\">3.7%<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\" valign=\"bottom\">5.9%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr valign=\"top\">\n<td valign=\"top\">85 years and over<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\" valign=\"bottom\">1.7%<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\" valign=\"bottom\">2.3%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h3>Political Identification<\/h3>\n<p>According to the <a href=\"http:\/\/dos.myflorida.com\/elections\/data-statistics\/voter-registration-statistics\/bookclosing\/\">Florida Division of Elections Statistics<\/a>, the political leanings of the Seminole County venire is likely to slightly favor the George Zimmerman defense team:<\/p>\n<p>In the 2012 General Election:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>277,376 persons voted<\/li>\n<li>110,567 were Republicans<\/li>\n<li>94,193 were Democrats<\/li>\n<li>72,616 were affiliated to other parties or independent.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Of those people who voted, the racial breakdown was as follows:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>191,611 were white<\/li>\n<li>28,531 were Hispanic<\/li>\n<li>25,240 were black<\/li>\n<li>5,469 were Asian<\/li>\n<li>872 were Native American<\/li>\n<li>Remainder unknown or not reported<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Of Republicans who voted, the racial breakdown was as follows:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>88% of Republican voters were white<\/li>\n<li>6% were Hispanic<\/li>\n<li>1% were black<\/li>\n<li>1.5% were Asian<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Of Democrats who voted, the racial breakdown was as follows:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>54% were white<\/li>\n<li>23% were black<\/li>\n<li>15% were Hispanic<\/li>\n<li>2% were Asian<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Finally, of the whites, blacks, and hispanics who voted:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>94% of blacks voted Democrat<\/li>\n<li>68% of hispanics voted Democrat<\/li>\n<li>65% of whites voted Republican<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3>Racial Composition<\/h3>\n<p>According to United States Census Statistics, the racial composition of the Seminole County venire is likely to appear very favorable to the George Zimmerman defense team:<\/p>\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<th align=\"left\" valign=\"bottom\">Census Statistics<\/th>\n<th align=\"center\" valign=\"bottom\">Seminole<\/th>\n<th align=\"center\" valign=\"bottom\">Florida<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr valign=\"top\">\n<td valign=\"top\">White persons, percent, 2011<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\" valign=\"bottom\">65.8%<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\" valign=\"bottom\">57.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr valign=\"top\">\n<td valign=\"top\">Hispanic persons, percent, 2011<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\" valign=\"bottom\">17.7%<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\" valign=\"bottom\">22.9%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr valign=\"top\">\n<td valign=\"top\">Black persons, percent, 2011<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\" valign=\"bottom\">11.7%<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\" valign=\"bottom\">16.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr valign=\"top\">\n<td valign=\"top\">Asian persons, percent, 2011<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\" valign=\"bottom\">3.9%<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\" valign=\"bottom\">2.6%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr valign=\"top\">\n<td valign=\"top\">Multiracial persons, percent, 2011<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\" valign=\"bottom\">2.2%<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\" valign=\"bottom\">1.8%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr valign=\"top\">\n<td valign=\"top\">Native Americans, percent, 2011<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\" valign=\"bottom\">0.4%<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\" valign=\"bottom\">0.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr valign=\"top\">\n<td valign=\"top\">Hawaiian\/Polynesian persons, percent, 2011<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\" valign=\"bottom\">0.1%<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\" valign=\"bottom\">0.1%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>Given these statistics, and all things being equal, we can expect that the venire will be comprised approximately:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>329 white persons;<\/li>\n<li>89 hispanic persons;<\/li>\n<li>59 black persons;<\/li>\n<li>20 Asian persons;<\/li>\n<li>11 multiracial persons; and<\/li>\n<li>3 Native American or Polynesian Persons.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3>Gender Distribution<\/h3>\n<p>According to the <a href=\"https:\/\/factfinder.census.gov\/faces\/tableservices\/jsf\/pages\/productview.xhtml?src=bkmk\">United States Census Statistics<\/a>, the gender of the Seminole County venire may lean slightly towards the prosecution:<\/p>\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<th align=\"left\" valign=\"bottom\">Census Statistics<\/th>\n<th align=\"center\" valign=\"bottom\">Seminole<\/th>\n<th align=\"center\" valign=\"bottom\">Florida<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr valign=\"top\">\n<td valign=\"top\">Male (18 and older)<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\" valign=\"bottom\">47.8%<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\" valign=\"bottom\">48.3%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr valign=\"top\">\n<td valign=\"top\">Female (18 and older)<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\" valign=\"bottom\">52.2%<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\" valign=\"bottom\">51.7%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>Given these statistics, and all things being equal, we can expect that the venire will be comprised of:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>239 males; and<\/li>\n<li>261 females.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3>Homeownership Rates<\/h3>\n<p>According to United States Census Statistics, the homeownership rate of the Seminole County venire is likely to lean toward the George Zimmerman defense team:<\/p>\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<th align=\"left\" valign=\"bottom\">Census Statistics<\/th>\n<th align=\"center\" valign=\"bottom\">Seminole<\/th>\n<th align=\"center\" valign=\"bottom\">Florida<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr valign=\"top\">\n<td valign=\"top\">Homeownership rate, 2007-2011<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\" valign=\"bottom\">71.5%<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\" valign=\"bottom\">69.0%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr valign=\"top\">\n<td valign=\"top\">Multi-unit housing (Apartments), percent, 2007-2011<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\" valign=\"bottom\">25.3%<\/td>\n<td align=\"right\" valign=\"bottom\">29.9%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>Given these statistics, and all things being equal, we can expect that the venire will be comprised of:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>358 homeowners; and<\/li>\n<li>142 renters.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Personal Experience<\/h2>\n<p>Of the nine trials I have conducted in Seminole County, four have been in front of Judge Nelson and two of those were for First Degree Murder.<\/p>\n<p>Most of my jurors were either educators, engineers, medical professionals, emergency safety personnel, or stay-at-home mothers.\u00a0The majority of my juries have been white, usually leaning female, middle aged, and parents.\u00a0I recall having a large amount of small business owners on my venires; but have no memory of whether they were homeowners or not (as the issues were not important to my cases).<\/p>\n<p>While the tangible statistics indicate that whatever venire shows up, it will be favorable to George Zimmerman, my own personal experience corroborates what the statistics tell me I should expect.<\/p>\n<h2>Seminole County Conviction Rates<\/h2>\n<p>Finally, under normal circumstances, Seminole County is the last Central Florida County you would want to be prosecuted in; given that\u00a093% of all felony defendants are convicted. (Angela Corey averaged a 96% conviction rate, the highest in the state.)<\/p>\n<p>However, these are not normal circumstances. The issues in this case involve a White-Hispanic male, whose neighborhood has experienced a rash of burglaries, and who will be invoking the Stand Your Ground law (a law highly supported by Republicans) against a black male.<\/p>\n<h2>Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>Putting political correctness aside for the moment, the demographics of Seminole County are ideal for George Zimmerman and his anticipated Stand Your Ground defense.<\/p>\n<p>It also explains why Mark O&#8217;Mara did not think for a minute about seeking a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.flsenate.gov\/Laws\/Statutes\/2012\/910.03\">change of venue<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Statistically speaking, George Zimmerman could not ask for a more favorable County from which to pull his potential jury.<\/p>\n<p>Mark O&#8217;Mara just better hope that that<a href=\"http:\/\/www.foxnews.com\/us\/2012\/04\/16\/fair-trial-for-zimmerman-not-likely-on-home-turf-say-legal-experts.html\">\u00a0Harvard Law Professor Alan Dershowitz&#8217;s opinion<\/a>\u00a0as to why Seminole County would be a bad place to have the trial was wrong.<\/p>\n<p>Because the last thing a primarily white jury would want, is for a <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/1992_Los_Angeles_riots\">race riot to erupt<\/a> in their county if they should acquit George Zimmerman.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In all criminal prosecutions the accused shall have a speedy and public trial by impartial jury in the county where the crime was committed. &#8211; Article 1, Section 16, Florida Constitution For over a year, the issue of race has hung over the George Zimmerman case like a persistent thunderstorm. And while much has been [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1122","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-criminal-law"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hornsby.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1122","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hornsby.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hornsby.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hornsby.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hornsby.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1122"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.hornsby.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1122\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hornsby.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1122"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hornsby.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1122"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hornsby.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1122"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}